ROCHESTER, N.Y. – What is left of Isaias will increase rain chances through this evening across Western New York. It is still likely the Finger Lakes and eastern Southern Tier will see the highest rain totals with estimated accumulations between 0.25 and 0.75 inch of rain. The lighter rain will mainly stay concentrated east of the Genesee River Valley (including Rochester) with most accumulations staying under 0.10 inch. Wind gusts have already started decreasing across the higher elevations of western New York and are expected to stay that way headed through the remainder of the evening. Mostly cloudy skies are expected through the rest of Sunday night with showers tapering off from west to east after midnight. Winds calm substantially and will be variable at 3 to 8 mph. Low temperatures should stay in the upper-40s for higher elevations and low-50s for the Rochester metro area.
Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples Day brings mostly fair weather. Despite a few passing sprinkles possible in the morning, the rest of the day should remain pretty dry. Clouds will hang around until the evening hours, but we should still warm up to a high near 70 degrees. Winds shift to out of the southwest later in the day, bringing that warmer air, and some gusts off Lake Erie. The Rochester area should see winds primarily stay between 10 and 15 mph while those downwind of Lake Erie may see some winds gusting between 15 and 25 mph.
After a brief bit of partial clearing, clouds will start to build in again Monday night ahead of our next storm system. Because we will see an increase of warmth and moisture, Monday night may feel a little muggy. That mugginess will carry over into Tuesday with scattered thunderstorms possible through the day on Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center has western New York in a 1/5 risk area for severe weather on Tuesday. However, data is currently split between tracking the storm’s center just to our north or bringing it straight through western New York. The next couple subsequent high resolution model runs should give us a better idea of how probable our severe weather threat is for Tuesday. Stay tuned for updates!
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