Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria Near a Breaking Point
Israeli strikes and disputed ceasefire terms raise the risk of renewed fighting across multiple fronts
By Keren Setton/The Media Line
Delicate ceasefires and arrangements in the Middle East are nearing a breaking point as Israel and its adversaries weigh their next moves.
Across Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, each front appears poised either to slide back into violence or to move forward with settlements that could bring a measure of calm.
Over the weekend, the Israeli military killed a senior Hamas commander. The group accused Israel of trying to derail the ceasefire, while Israeli officials said Raad Saad, a leading figure in Hamas’ military wing, was rearming the terrorist group and threatening the second phase of the agreement, which is supposed to include Hamas disarmament.
In Lebanon, Israel has continued airstrikes against what it says are Hezbollah targets. A ceasefire that has held for about a year is under strain as a deadline for Hezbollah’s disarmament approaches. Israel has been accused of dozens of ceasefire violations that the Lebanese-based, Iranian-backed terrorist group has so far not answered.
Meanwhile, in Syria, Israel continues to hold several positions inside Syrian territory after a preemptive move meant to prevent terrorists from moving into the border area following the collapse of the Assad regime. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz have repeatedly said the army will maintain those positions, despite Syrian demands that Israel withdraw to the lines set by the 1974 truce agreement.
GAZA
The phased ceasefire agreement reached through American mediation two months ago is supposed to move into its second phase after Hamas has released all but one deceased Israeli hostage.
Israel insists the body of Ran Gvili, the missing deceased hostage, must be returned before the next phase begins. Israeli media reports have said the US administration, led by President Donald Trump, is pressuring Israel to relent.
Israeli troops still maintain a major presence in Gaza, dividing the narrow strip in two along the “yellow line” marking the limits of Israeli forces under the first stage of the deal.
President Trump put much of his reputation on the line for the agreement, which secured the release of most of the hostages and ended a two-year war that took a heavy toll on Israelis and Palestinians.
“The advantage of the deal was that it separated the two stages, and so the first succeeded and the second is a lot more doubtful,” Professor Chuck Freilich, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, told The Media Line.
If the agreement fully advances, Israel is supposed to withdraw from Gaza, and Hamas is supposed to give up its weapons and remove itself from power there.
“Trump will keep a lid on things, not wanting to see a resumption of the fighting,” Freilich said. “We may see over time the US backing off on the demand that Hamas disarm, there will be various compromises on the issue, and in the end, it won’t happen.”
After Hamas’ surprise offensive on October 7, 2023, Israel launched a major offensive in Gaza, vowing to remove Hamas from any position of power.
“If Hamas isn’t disarmed and the Gaza Strip isn’t demilitarized, Israel will have finished the war without achieving its goals,” Prof. Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy and a former deputy director-general at Israel’s Ministry for Strategic Affairs, told The Media Line. “Israel will have trouble coming to terms with that.”
Michael said the US was still trying to keep the agreement viable, hoping it would create momentum for a gradual implementation that results in Hamas disarmament.
Michael explained that only the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) could do that. “For now, Israel is giving the Americans the time to do things their warm until Trump will reach the conclusion that Hamas is a serious obstacle to the agreement, and then Israel will be allowed to resume the fighting.”
LEBANON
Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire about a year ago after months of hostilities that culminated in a two-month war in which Israeli troops carried out a major ground invasion into Lebanon. The IDF pushed most of Hezbollah’s forces back to the Litani River, about 29 kilometers north of the Israeli border.
Under the agreement, the Lebanese army—much weaker than the Iranian-backed terrorist group—was tasked with disarming Hezbollah. The organization spent decades building itself into Israel’s most formidable threat, a reality that poses an immense challenge to the Lebanese army, and possibly an impossible one.
“This is not going to happen peacefully,” said Freilich. “Similar to the situation in Gaza, the question here is how much pressure Trump will put on Israel. We could see a bigger, but still a limited strike to send a message to Hezbollah. The Lebanese government doesn’t really have capability to do it, so Israel will try to apply pressure on them and on Hezbollah.”
As part of the US-brokered ceasefire, Hezbollah and Israel are both required to withdraw from southern Lebanon, and the UN peacekeeping force UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) is supposed to take part in dismantling Hezbollah infrastructure.
The agreement also reportedly included a guaranteed letter from the US to Israel granting Israel leeway to operate militarily against Hezbollah. Israel has continued operations in Lebanon despite condemnations from Beirut and Hezbollah.
“These actions on their own will not lead to the disarmament of Hamas,” Michael said. “In order to do that, a very wide and perhaps lengthy military operation is necessary. It appears we are closer to that than ever before, unless the Lebanese government will show greater determination, which is something I do not see happening.”
Israel has kept troops in five locations in southern Lebanon, describing them as strategic vantage points, alongside regular strikes against Hezbollah.
“In Lebanon, we see the highest chances for a resumption of the war,” said Michael. “The Americans have lost their patience, and Israel has a green light to operate.”
US Special Envoy to Lebanon Tom Barrack has previously warned of such a scenario.
SYRIA
One year after the Assad regime collapsed and Ahmed al-Sharaa rose to power, Israel moved quickly into the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, establishing what has since become a lasting presence in southwestern Syria. The area had previously served as an internationally recognized buffer zone between the two countries.
Netanyahu and Katz have vowed to remain in what is reported to be nine or 10 military outposts the IDF has established in Syria.
Although al-Sharaa has condemned Israel’s presence, there has been no forceful response.
“It is tolerated for lack of choice,” said Freilich. “Israel can afford to withdraw if it can get security assurances from the Syrians.”
Israel remains wary of the new Syrian leader’s past as a senior al-Qaida commander, citing fears that the area along its northern border could fall into the wrong hands.
For years, Syria was also the main route through which Iran smuggled weapons and funds to Hezbollah, building up the terrorist group as its most immediate threat to the Jewish state.
“If Israel will reach an understanding with the Americans through dialogue with the Syrians that all of the territory south of Damascus will remain demilitarized and under a strict enforcement regime, Israel will be willing to reposition itself,” said Michael. “But that won’t happen so fast.”
Indirect talks between Syria and Israel have so far produced no such outcome.
Even when Middle East arrangements hold, their durability is never guaranteed; many agreements falter quickly.
“Declarations are easy; it’s implementation that’s hard,” said Freilich, who believes renewed violence could be ahead, though not immediately.
Next year could bring another major test for the region.
“It will be the year when the fighting will resume—perhaps not all fronts, but at least on some,” Michael concluded.
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