Porous Border Facilitates Iran’s ‘Flooding of West Bank With Weapons’
As Hamas gains popularity and weapons stockpiles increase, analysts warn that Israel must act decisively to neutralize the growing threat
By Keren Setton/The Media Line
The Israeli military continued its operations against armed Palestinian groups in the West Bank on Tuesday, focusing on the city of Jenin. Since the beginning of Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza 15 months ago, violence in the area has surged. Dubbed Operation Iron Wall by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the campaign has intensified even as a fragile ceasefire in Gaza remains in place.
“What Israel is doing now is the first lesson it has learned since the war,” said Dr. Hanan Shai, an expert in military and diplomatic strategy at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy. Speaking to The Media Line, he added, “Israel will no longer wait until threats become monstrous.”
According to the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, 53 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces since the start of the year, most of them in Jenin.
On Tuesday morning, a Palestinian gunman attacked a military checkpoint near the northern West Bank village of Tayasir, killing two Israeli soldiers and wounding several others. Media reports indicate that the attacker infiltrated the post overnight, using the darkness as cover to position himself before launching the early morning assault.
Even before the war between Hamas and Israel in Gaza, Israeli officials had repeatedly accused Iran of fueling violence in the West Bank. An uptick in attacks against Israelis—including failed missile launches from the West Bank—has been attributed not only to Palestinian forces but also to Tehran’s involvement.
“Iran is always trying to fan the flames,” said Maj. (ret.) Alex Grinberg, a former Israeli military intelligence officer and an expert on Iran at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. “It is trying to flood the West Bank with weapons and incitement in order to badger Israel in every possible way and challenge it on several fronts simultaneously.”
Despite Iran’s influence, Grinberg cautioned that attributing all the violence to Tehran would be a mistake. “Iran is definitely encouraging the violence, but it is not the reason for it.”
The Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv has reported nearly 7,000 Palestinian attacks in the West Bank since the start of the Gaza war. These incidents have resulted in dozens of Israeli deaths and injuries to more than 400 people. Meanwhile, UN data shows that over 900 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank since October 2023, with 6,000 detained on suspicion of involvement in terrorist activities.
Settler violence against Palestinians has also escalated during the conflict.
Israel captured the West Bank during the 1967 Mideast war. Home to nearly three million Palestinians, the territory is widely viewed by Palestinians as the core of their future state—a position supported by much of the international community, which considers Israeli settlements illegal under international law. Some key Israeli cabinet ministers, however, advocate for strengthening Israel’s hold on the West Bank, citing both biblical claims and security concerns over Palestinian violence.
More than 500,000 Jewish settlers live in the West Bank, while an additional 200,000 Israelis reside in East Jerusalem—a territory that Israel considers part of its capital but which most of the international community regards as part of the West Bank.
The Palestinian Authority (PA) was established in 1994 following the signing of the Oslo Accords between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization. Controlled by the Fatah party and led by President Mahmoud Abbas, the PA governs Area A of the West Bank and shares civil control in Area B, while Israel retains full control over Area C. Israeli officials have accused the PA of both inciting and funding terrorism, while failing to exercise authority in several areas, allowing terrorist networks to flourish. Israeli forces have conducted operations in areas where the PA has been either unwilling or unable to act.
The IDF described its latest operation in Jenin, which includes airstrikes against suspected targets, as a mission “to ensure the security of the citizens of the State of Israel.”
“As long as Israel is interested in the existence of the PA, it will operate where it can’t or won’t,” said Grinberg. “But the only solution to the security threat is complete Israeli military rule and control in the area.”
A full withdrawal from the West Bank is not an option, according to Grinberg. “Once that happens, Israel will have no intelligence hold in the West Bank, and this is exactly what was missing in Gaza for many years.”
The possibility of an infiltration similar to Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack on southern Israel remains a major concern. While Hamas does not govern the West Bank, its popularity has surged. Abbas’ legitimacy has eroded in recent years, due in part to corruption scandals and the postponement of elections since 2006.
Despite this, Hamas has not yet reached the military capability in the West Bank that it had in Gaza—largely because Israel never withdrew from the territory. Unlike in Gaza, where Hamas built a vast underground tunnel network over two decades, the West Bank’s rocky terrain makes similar tunnel construction significantly harder. Nevertheless, Hamas and other terrorist organizations still pose a significant threat to Israel.
The Israeli military has recently uncovered underground tunnels originating in the West Bank, allegedly meant for attacks against Israel. Weapons stockpiles—including rockets and explosives—have also been discovered, indicating increased terrorist activity.
“In terms of the number of weapons and organization, it is possible that Hamas has reached similar abilities to those it had in Gaza,” said Grinberg. “There are probably attempts to dig tunnels, but it is not possible to do so at the scale achieved in Gaza.”
“There is no doubt that, given the opportunity to execute an attack similar to October 7, the willpower exists,” he continued. “The question is whether there is the ability.”
Shai agreed, adding, “The terrorists are very well equipped and have reached army-level organization. It is unclear whether they can carry out an attack like Hamas did in Gaza, but Israel shouldn’t wait to find out. It needs to enter the territory and eliminate the threat.”
The goal of the IDF operation is to prevent such an attack. One of its biggest challenges is securing the border between the West Bank and Jordan, a nearly 100-kilometer-long boundary that is poorly monitored and highly porous.
“This border should have been sealed a long time ago,” said Shai. “While Jordan has done its part to control it, Israel has relied on others for too long.”
Iran is believed to be exploiting the border’s weaknesses to smuggle weapons into the West Bank for Palestinian terrorist organizations.
On Monday, social media videos showed massive explosions set by the IDF in Jenin, with Palestinian reports claiming that over 100 buildings had been destroyed. Thousands of Palestinians have fled the Jenin and Tulkarem refugee camps in recent days, according to Palestinian media.
Following the attack that killed two Israeli soldiers, Maj. Gen. Avi Bluth, head of the IDF Central Command, addressed the media.
“Terrorism is defeated through offense,” Bluth said. “This morning’s incident … is a demonstration of the necessity of the … operation … and the need to eradicate terrorism that has taken root. We are determined to continue the operation, expand it as needed, and achieve victory.”
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